Gold was at a 2-wk high just below 1700 in the US Tuesday.
Comments from the US Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s that easing monetary bias would continue revived hopes of QE-3 and sent Gold higher on Monday.
If the upward momentum in the precious Yellow metal is to be maintained depends on the follow-through other actions by the Fed or other central banks.
In our opinion, Gold will likely stay in its consolidative pattern, and a breakout should be seen later this year.
After Gold entered its correction in September in 2011, there a strong rebound in January and February this year.
But, it failed to break above 1800 in late February, that lead to the price decline again. The drop since late February was for the most part driven by the market’s interpretation that the US Fed would not implement QE-3 because the US economy was showning signs of improvement, sending the USD North, and Gold South.
In addition to my POV that there is a strong chance for more Fed’s easing, I see the trade situation in China could also put downside risks on the USD.
China unexpectedly recorded a 31.5-B trade deficit in February, the largest deficit since Y 1989, as imports grew significantly faster after the Lunar New Year.
The Gold price in Hong Kong went up 290 HK Dollars to open at 15,710 HK Dollars per tael Tuesday, according to the Chinese Gold and Silver Exchange Society.
The price is equivalent to US$1,697.2 oz, up 30.9 oz at the latest exchange rate of 1 USD against 7.77 HK Dollars.
While it is expected to return to surplus later in the year, the size will contract from prior years. A fall into deficits and narrowing of surplus indicate that China is transforming from an export-driven to a demand-driven economy.
A possible consequence of this transformation is that China’s demand for US Treasuries could decrease, eventually sending the USD further South. In case of materialization of this scenario, this will be bullish for Gold’s price IMO.
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