Harga emas hari ini mencecah indek 6435 pertahil paling tinggi sejak tahun 2013, (6900 pada 2011), punca utama kenaikan luar biasa emas kali ini dikatakan kesan “Brexit Gold Rush” atau Britain Exit apabila rakyat Britain akan mengundi pada 23 Jun ini samada untuk kekal didalam kesatuan eropah atau tidak.
Ramai pelabur emas mengharapkan Britain mengundi keluar dan mencetuskan situasi panik kepada kuasa ekonomi dunia seperti Amerika dan Jepun. Semua mata-mata pelabur emas kini tertumpu pada undian minggu hadapan bolehkah harga emas mencecah USD1400 dalam tempoh masa singkat dengan harapan keputusan Brexit adalah keluar.
Situasi panik ini memberi kesan kepada pelabur-pelabur jepun untuk menarik balik pinjaman dan pelaburan mereka di luar negara terutamanya di US kerana setiap kali harga emas naik, matawang USD akan lemah dan pelabur Jepun pastinya memilih untuk meminimumkan risiko dengan keluar dari pasaran saham US dan kembali ke NIKKEI yang semakin pulih.
Miningfeeds update by Stewart Thompson
1. A “Leave” vote is even more positive for the gold price, and if it’s followed by a rate hike from Janet Yellen in July, global stock markets could begin a horrific down cycle.
2. Gold is very sensitive to the price action of the US dollar against the Japanese Yen.
3. Japan is the world’s largest creditor nation, and America is the world’s largest debtor nation. The Brexit turmoil is causing Japanese citizens and institutions to repatriate money from abroad. That puts heavy downwards pressure on the US dollar.
4. When the world’s largest creditor class goes into “risk-off” mode, powerful institutional money managers buy gold aggressively.
5. During the “QE heydays” of 2009 – 2011, highly levered hedge funds were aggressive SPDR fund buyers. Sadly, that leverage meant they couldn’t hold their positions when the price dipped.
6. Now, a lot of unleveraged private banks and value-oriented institutions are the buyers. They won’t be shaken from their positions, and they are buying gold consistently.
7. A rate hike that follows Brexit turmoil could put the Dow into crash mode, and send gold straight towards $1400.
8. Gold has an solid floor of bullish fundamentals underneath it now. That means the downside is very limited, but it’s difficult for Western money managers to overwhelm supply when India is in quiet mode, as it is now.
9. So, it’s important that gold market investors exhibit patience. Gold has really been trading sideways from mid-February, in a loose rectangular price pattern. Chinese New Year buying ended in February, and India is still one to two months away from serious Diwali-related dealer buying.
10. The bottom line is that as Asian physical demand strengthens, Western money manager buying will push total global demand above total supply, and the next major leg higher for gold will be underway!
11. I beg to differ. If gold can make it to the $1400 area, the profits made by gold companies can increase dramatically, and that would unleash a fresh round of powerful institutional buying. Gold stocks should not only continue to lead bullion in the second half of 2016, but they appear poised to increase that outperformance!
Harga emas naik hampir +RM14/gram dalam tempoh masa 2 bulan terakhir, kali terakhir harga emas mencecah indeks yang hampir ketika ini adalah ketika cuti raya cina lalu pada akhir februari 2016 ( indeks 6400) tetapi cuma dapat bertahan kurang dari 2 hari sebelum menjunam jatuh minggu kemudiannya kepada indeks 5700++ (jatuh sebanyak -RM18/gm dalam masa 2 minggu), jika keputusan brexit adalah kekal dalam kesatuan EU, kemungkinan sekali lagi harga emas akan menjunam seperti yang selalu terjadi sebelum ini.
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